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Biden: 'Very High' Likelihood Russia Will Invade Ukraine

A view shows a rocket launcher system during the "Allied Resolve" military exercises held by the armed forces of Russia and Belarus at the Osipovichsky training ground in the Mogilev region, Belarus, February 17, 2022.
A view shows a rocket launcher system during the "Allied Resolve" military exercises held by the armed forces of Russia and Belarus at the Osipovichsky training ground in the Mogilev region, Belarus, February 17, 2022.


U.S. President Joe Biden said Thursday there is a “very high” likelihood that Russia will invade Ukraine in the next several days.

“We have reason to believe that they are engaged in a false-flag operation to have an excuse to go in,” Biden told reporters at the White House. “Every indication we have is they’re prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine.”

“My sense is it will happen within the next several days,” he said.

Biden said, however, he still believes it is possible to find a diplomatic solution that would ease Russia’s concerns about NATO’s missiles and military training exercises in eastern Europe. The Western allies reject Russia’s main demand that NATO rule out the possibility of granting membership to Ukraine and other former Soviet states.

Meanwhile, Moscow expelled the No. 2-ranking U.S. diplomat from the American embassy in the Russian capital.

The U.S. State Department said the expulsion of Bart Gorman, its deputy chief of mission in Moscow, “was unprovoked, and we consider this an escalatory step and are considering our response.”

In Brussels, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Russia is continuing to amass its forces along Ukraine’s borders and that he sees no indication that Moscow is sending troops home as it claims.

"We don't see that," the Pentagon chief said at a meeting of NATO defense ministers. "Quite the contrary, we see them add to the more than 150,000 troops they already have arrayed along that border. ... We even see them stocking up their blood supplies."

"I know firsthand that you don’t do these sorts of things for no reason, and you certainly don’t do them if you’re getting ready to pack up and go home,” Austin said. U.S. officials say Moscow has sent another 7,000 troops to the Ukraine border in recent days.

Austin added, "There is no reason, of course, that it should ever come to this. Just like there is no reason for Russia to again invade Ukraine" after annexing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014.

The Kremlin contends it is withdrawing troops from near the Ukraine border but said it will take time to do so.

Austin said that if Russian President Vladimir Putin “chooses war” instead of a diplomatic resolution to the Ukraine crisis, “it will be Mr. Putin who will bear the responsibility for the suffering and the immense sacrifice that ensues."

Austin said that “a peaceful outcome that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity represents the best outcome for Ukraine, to be sure, but also for Russia and for the Russian people."

Russia’s intentions could become clearer later Thursday after the United States and its allies analyze a document that the Kremlin delivered to U.S. Ambassador John Sullivan in Moscow.

It is Russia’s written response to the recent U.S. and NATO offer to negotiate over their missile deployment and troop exercises in Europe while rejecting Russia’s demands related to possible Ukraine membership in NATO.

The U.S. is also watching the conflict between Russian separatists and Kyiv’s forces in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where 14,000 people have been killed in the last eight years.

On Thursday, Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebels traded accusations of firing across a cease-fire line. Austin said reports of the shelling were “certainly troubling. We've said for some time that the Russians might do something like this in order to justify a military conflict, so we'll be watching very closely."

The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine says in a tweet that Russia has shelled the village of Stanytsia Luhanska, in Ukrainian government-controlled territory in Donbas. The embassy says a kindergarten was hit and two teachers were injured. The embassy says power to the area has been knocked out. Officials also say, “The aggressor in Donbas is clear – Russia.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was deeply concerned about the flare-up in violence. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for a condemnation of what he called a “severe violation of Minsk agreements by Russia amid an already tense security situation.” The U.S. Embassy also made similar comments in another tweet.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, "We are concerned that Russia is trying to stage a pretext for an armed attack against Ukraine.”

He said that “NATO’s door remains open” to negotiations, but the Western alliance cannot accept when “big powers intimidate, bully or dictate others.” He invited Russia to "engage in good faith" over the Ukraine crisis.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.