Observers of the current crisis in Zimbabwe have advanced different views as to whether current events are setting the stage for a transition in the near term – that the country is at a “tipping point,” as U.S. Ambassador to Zimbabwe Christopher Dell put it this week – or if this is just another stage in a long process for the country.
Historian Tracy Dove of the University of New York in Prague, the Czech Republic, argues that President Robert Mugabe will probably not be dislodged soon.
Dove, who has written a number of articles about Mr. Mugabe, said the president has managed to manipulate the political process to keep both his domestic opposition and leaders in the region from advancing the democratic process.
Dove told reporter Carole Gombakomba of VOA's Studio 7 for Zimbabwe that he sees Mr. Mugabe eventually being replaced, but that conditions are not ripe for change.